feat: stats analysis & viz w/ unit tests

This commit is contained in:
Florian Sylvain
2025-03-28 16:06:27 +01:00
parent 19f3dc3beb
commit bbb91c1b41
3 changed files with 449 additions and 15 deletions
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"""
This module provides statistical analysis and visualization for lottery draws.
"""
import math
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy import stats
class StatsAnalysis:
"""Handles statistical analysis of lottery draws"""
def __init__(self, max_number, max_star, number_of_numbers, number_of_stars):
self.max_number = max_number
self.max_star = max_star
self.number_of_numbers = number_of_numbers
self.number_of_stars = number_of_stars
def analyze_randomness(self, draws):
"""
Analyzes the randomness of generated draws using statistical tests.
Args:
draws: List of draw dictionaries
Returns:
Dictionary with analysis results
Raises:
ValueError: If the draws list is empty
"""
if not draws:
raise ValueError("Cannot analyze randomness with empty draws list")
all_numbers, all_stars = self._extract_numbers_and_stars(draws)
results = {"sample_size": len(draws)}
number_results = self._analyze_dataset(
all_numbers, "number", self.max_number)
results.update(number_results)
star_results = self._analyze_dataset(all_stars, "star", self.max_star)
results.update(star_results)
return results
def _analyze_dataset(self, values, value_type, max_value):
"""
Analyzes a single dataset (either numbers or stars).
Args:
values: List of values to analyze
value_type: String identifier ("number" or "star")
max_value: Maximum possible value in the dataset
Returns:
Dictionary with analysis results for this dataset
"""
results = {}
counts = self._calculate_frequencies(values, max_value)
expected_freq = len(values) / max_value
chi2_result = self._perform_chi_square_test(
counts, expected_freq, max_value)
min_max = self._find_min_max_frequencies(counts)
stats_data = self._calculate_statistics(counts, expected_freq, min_max)
results[f"{value_type}_frequencies"] = counts
results[f"expected_{value_type}_freq"] = expected_freq
results[f"{value_type}_chi2"] = chi2_result["chi2"]
results[f"p_value_{value_type}s"] = chi2_result["p_value"]
results[f"min_{value_type}"] = min_max["min"]
results[f"max_{value_type}"] = min_max["max"]
results[f"{value_type}_std_dev"] = stats_data["std_dev"]
results[f"{value_type}_variation_pct"] = stats_data["variation_pct"]
results[f"{value_type}_assessment"] = self._assess_randomness(
chi2_result["p_value"])
return results
def _extract_numbers_and_stars(self, draws):
"""Extract all numbers and stars from the draws"""
all_numbers = []
all_stars = []
for draw in draws:
all_numbers.extend(draw['numbers'])
all_stars.extend(draw['stars'])
return all_numbers, all_stars
def _calculate_frequencies(self, values, max_value):
"""Count the frequency of each value"""
counts = {}
for n in range(1, max_value + 1):
counts[n] = values.count(n)
return counts
def _perform_chi_square_test(self, counts, expected_freq, max_value):
"""Perform chi-square test on the distribution"""
observed = list(counts.values())
expected = [expected_freq] * max_value
chi2, p_value = stats.chisquare(observed, expected)
return {"chi2": chi2, "p_value": p_value}
def _find_min_max_frequencies(self, counts):
"""Find minimum and maximum frequencies"""
min_count = min(counts.values())
max_count = max(counts.values())
min_values = [n for n, count in counts.items() if count == min_count]
max_values = [n for n, count in counts.items() if count == max_count]
return {
"min": (min_values, min_count),
"max": (max_values, max_count)
}
def _calculate_statistics(self, counts, expected_freq, min_max):
"""Calculate standard deviation and variation percentage"""
std_dev = math.sqrt(sum((count - expected_freq) ** 2
for count in counts.values()) / len(counts))
min_count = min_max["min"][1]
max_count = min_max["max"][1]
if expected_freq == 0:
variation_pct = 0
else:
variation_pct = (max_count - min_count) / expected_freq * 100
return {
"std_dev": std_dev,
"variation_pct": variation_pct
}
def _assess_randomness(self, p_value):
"""Assess randomness based on p-value"""
return "likely random" if p_value > 0.05 else "possibly biased"
class StatsVisualization:
"""Handles visualization of lottery draw statistics"""
def __init__(self, max_number, max_star):
self.max_number = max_number
self.max_star = max_star
def display_randomness_analysis(self, results):
"""Displays the results of randomness analysis in a user-friendly format"""
print(f"\n===== RANDOMNESS ANALYSIS =====\n"
f"{self._format_analysis_section(results, 'number')}\n"
f"{self._format_analysis_section(results, 'star')}\n\n"
f"For truly reliable randomness assessment, a larger sample size may be needed.")
if results['sample_size'] < 100:
print(
"Sample size is relatively small, results should be interpreted with caution.")
self._prompt_for_visualization(results)
def _format_analysis_section(self, results, value_type):
"""
Formats a section of the randomness analysis output
Args:
results: Dictionary containing analysis results
value_type: Either "number" or "star" to specify which analysis to format
"""
title_suffix = "NUMBERS ANALYSIS" if value_type == "number" else "STARS ANALYSIS"
title = f"MAIN {title_suffix}" if value_type == "number" else f"STAR {title_suffix}"
min_key = f"min_{value_type}"
max_key = f"max_{value_type}"
return f"\n{title}:" \
f"\nExpected frequency per value: {results[f'expected_{value_type}_freq']:.2f}" \
f"\nVariation between min and max: {results[f'{value_type}_variation_pct']:.2f}%" \
f"\nLeast frequent value(s): {results[min_key][0]} (x{results[min_key][1]})" \
f"\nMost frequent value(s): {results[max_key][0]} (x{results[max_key][1]})" \
f"\nStandard deviation: {results[f'{value_type}_std_dev']:.2f}" \
f"\nChi-square value: {results[f'{value_type}_chi2']:.2f}" \
f"\nP-value: {results[f'p_value_{value_type}s']:.4f}" \
f"\nAssessment: {results[f'{value_type}_assessment'].upper()}"
def _prompt_for_visualization(self, results):
"""Asks the user if they want to see a visual representation of the distribution"""
show_viz = input(
"\nDo you want to see the distribution visualization? (y/n): ").lower().strip()
if show_viz in ['o', 'oui', 'y', 'yes', '']:
self._visualize_distribution(results)
def _visualize_distribution(self, results):
"""Creates a visualization of the number and star distributions"""
_, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(12, 10))
number_config = {
"color": "blue",
"title": "Main Numbers Distribution",
"tick_interval": 5
}
star_config = {
"color": "green",
"title": "Star Numbers Distribution",
"tick_interval": 1
}
self._plot_frequency_distribution(
ax1, results, "number", number_config)
self._plot_frequency_distribution(ax2, results, "star", star_config)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
def _plot_frequency_distribution(self, ax, results, value_type, config=None):
"""
Plots frequency distribution on the given axes
Args:
ax: Matplotlib axes to plot on
results: Analysis results dictionary
value_type: "number" or "star"
config: Optional dictionary with plot configuration
"""
config = config or {}
color = config.get("color", "blue")
title = config.get("title", f"{value_type.capitalize()} Distribution")
max_value = self.max_number if value_type == "number" else self.max_star
tick_interval = config.get("tick_interval", max(1, max_value // 10))
values = list(results[f'{value_type}_frequencies'].keys())
frequencies = list(results[f'{value_type}_frequencies'].values())
expected_freq = results[f'expected_{value_type}_freq']
ax.bar(values, frequencies, color=color, alpha=0.7)
ax.axhline(y=expected_freq, color='r',
linestyle='-', label='Expected frequency')
ax.set_title(title)
ax.set_xlabel(value_type.capitalize())
ax.set_ylabel('Frequency')
ax.set_xticks(range(1, max_value + 1, tick_interval))
ax.legend()
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""" """
This script generates random draws for EuroMillions using various entropy sources. Main entry point for the FDJ Slayer application.
""" """
import random import random
import numpy as _
from fdj_slayer.draw import Draw from fdj_slayer.draw import Draw
from fdj_slayer.stats import StatsAnalysis, StatsVisualization
from fdj_slayer.weather import Weather from fdj_slayer.weather import Weather
from fdj_slayer.constants import NUMBER_OF_DRAWS from fdj_slayer.constants import MAX_NUMBER, MAX_STAR, NUMBER_OF_NUMBERS, NUMBER_OF_STARS
def main(): def main():
"""Main function that orchestrates the draw generation process""" """Main entry point for the application"""
weather = Weather() weather = Weather()
draw_generator = Draw(weather) stats_analyzer = StatsAnalysis(
MAX_NUMBER, MAX_STAR, NUMBER_OF_NUMBERS, NUMBER_OF_STARS)
stats_visualizer = StatsVisualization(MAX_NUMBER, MAX_STAR)
draw = Draw(weather)
print(f"Generating {NUMBER_OF_DRAWS} different draws...") print("\nWelcome to FDJ SLAYER - Your EuroMillions Number Generator!")
draws = draw_generator.generate_draws(NUMBER_OF_DRAWS)
base_pool = draw_generator.get_static_entropy_pool() try:
random.seed(draw_generator.generate_seed(base_pool)) num_draws = int(input("\nHow many draws would you like to generate? "))
chosen_draw = random.choice(draws) except ValueError:
displayed_draws = {draws.index(chosen_draw)} num_draws = 5
print(f"Invalid input, defaulting to {num_draws} draws.")
draw_generator.display_draw(chosen_draw, title="FINAL RESULT") print("\nGenerating random draws with enhanced entropy...")
print("Draw selected from among the", NUMBER_OF_DRAWS, "generated") draws = draw.generate_draws(num_draws)
draw_generator.display_additional_draws(draws, displayed_draws)
if draws:
displayed = set()
random_index = random.randint(0, len(draws) - 1)
draw.display_draw(
draws[random_index], random_index, "RANDOMLY SELECTED DRAW")
displayed.add(random_index)
draw.display_additional_draws(draws, displayed)
print("\nAnalyzing randomness of the generated draws...")
analysis = stats_analyzer.analyze_randomness(draws)
stats_visualizer.display_randomness_analysis(analysis)
if __name__ == "__main__": if __name__ == "__main__":
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"""
Unit tests for the StatsAnalysis class in fdj_slayer.stats module
"""
import unittest
from unittest.mock import patch
import math
from fdj_slayer.stats import StatsAnalysis
class TestStatsAnalysis(unittest.TestCase):
"""Tests for the StatsAnalysis class"""
def setUp(self):
"""Set up test fixtures before each test method"""
self.stats_analyzer = StatsAnalysis(
max_number=50, max_star=12, number_of_numbers=5, number_of_stars=2)
self.sample_draws = [
{'numbers': [1, 10, 20, 30, 40], 'stars': [1, 10]},
{'numbers': [5, 15, 25, 35, 45], 'stars': [5, 12]},
{'numbers': [2, 12, 22, 32, 42], 'stars': [2, 11]},
{'numbers': [3, 13, 23, 33, 43], 'stars': [3, 8]},
{'numbers': [4, 14, 24, 34, 44], 'stars': [4, 9]}
]
def test_init(self):
"""Test initialization with correct parameters"""
self.assertEqual(self.stats_analyzer.max_number, 50)
self.assertEqual(self.stats_analyzer.max_star, 12)
self.assertEqual(self.stats_analyzer.number_of_numbers, 5)
self.assertEqual(self.stats_analyzer.number_of_stars, 2)
def test_extract_numbers_and_stars(self):
"""Test extraction of numbers and stars from draws"""
all_numbers, all_stars = self.stats_analyzer._extract_numbers_and_stars(
self.sample_draws)
expected_numbers = [1, 10, 20, 30, 40, 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 2, 12, 22, 32, 42,
3, 13, 23, 33, 43, 4, 14, 24, 34, 44]
expected_stars = [1, 10, 5, 12, 2, 11, 3, 8, 4, 9]
self.assertEqual(sorted(all_numbers), sorted(expected_numbers))
self.assertEqual(sorted(all_stars), sorted(expected_stars))
def test_calculate_frequencies(self):
"""Test frequency calculation"""
values = [1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4]
max_value = 5
frequencies = self.stats_analyzer._calculate_frequencies(
values, max_value)
self.assertEqual(frequencies, {1: 1, 2: 2, 3: 3, 4: 4, 5: 0})
self.assertEqual(sum(frequencies.values()), len(values))
def test_find_min_max_frequencies(self):
"""Test finding minimum and maximum frequencies"""
counts = {1: 5, 2: 3, 3: 3, 4: 10, 5: 0}
min_max = self.stats_analyzer._find_min_max_frequencies(counts)
self.assertEqual(min_max["min"], ([5], 0))
self.assertEqual(min_max["max"], ([4], 10))
counts = {1: 5, 2: 5, 3: 0, 4: 0, 5: 10, 6: 10}
min_max = self.stats_analyzer._find_min_max_frequencies(counts)
self.assertEqual(sorted(min_max["min"][0]), [3, 4])
self.assertEqual(min_max["min"][1], 0)
self.assertEqual(sorted(min_max["max"][0]), [5, 6])
self.assertEqual(min_max["max"][1], 10)
def test_calculate_statistics(self):
"""Test statistics calculation"""
counts = {1: 5, 2: 10, 3: 15}
expected_freq = 10
min_max = {"min": ([1], 5), "max": ([3], 15)}
stats_data = self.stats_analyzer._calculate_statistics(
counts, expected_freq, min_max)
expected_std_dev = math.sqrt(
sum((count - expected_freq)**2 for count in [5, 10, 15]) / 3)
expected_variation_pct = (15 - 5) / expected_freq * 100
self.assertAlmostEqual(stats_data["std_dev"], expected_std_dev)
self.assertAlmostEqual(
stats_data["variation_pct"], expected_variation_pct)
def test_assess_randomness(self):
"""Test randomness assessment based on p-value"""
self.assertEqual(
self.stats_analyzer._assess_randomness(0.06), "likely random")
self.assertEqual(self.stats_analyzer._assess_randomness(
0.05), "possibly biased")
self.assertEqual(self.stats_analyzer._assess_randomness(
0.04), "possibly biased")
self.assertEqual(
self.stats_analyzer._assess_randomness(0.8), "likely random")
self.assertEqual(self.stats_analyzer._assess_randomness(
0.01), "possibly biased")
@patch('scipy.stats.chisquare')
def test_perform_chi_square_test(self, mock_chisquare):
"""Test chi-square test with mocked scipy function"""
mock_chisquare.return_value = (1.234, 0.567)
counts = {1: 5, 2: 7, 3: 9}
expected_freq = 7
max_value = 3
result = self.stats_analyzer._perform_chi_square_test(
counts, expected_freq, max_value)
mock_chisquare.assert_called_once_with([5, 7, 9], [7, 7, 7])
self.assertEqual(result, {"chi2": 1.234, "p_value": 0.567})
def test_analyze_dataset(self):
"""Test dataset analysis with mocked internal methods"""
values = [1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4]
value_type = "number"
max_value = 5
with patch.object(self.stats_analyzer, '_calculate_frequencies') as mock_calc_freq, \
patch.object(self.stats_analyzer, '_perform_chi_square_test') as mock_chi2, \
patch.object(self.stats_analyzer, '_find_min_max_frequencies') as mock_min_max, \
patch.object(self.stats_analyzer, '_calculate_statistics') as mock_stats, \
patch.object(self.stats_analyzer, '_assess_randomness') as mock_assess:
mock_calc_freq.return_value = {1: 2, 2: 3, 3: 2, 4: 1, 5: 0}
mock_chi2.return_value = {"chi2": 2.5, "p_value": 0.6}
mock_min_max.return_value = {"min": ([5], 0), "max": ([2], 3)}
mock_stats.return_value = {"std_dev": 1.2, "variation_pct": 30.0}
mock_assess.return_value = "likely random"
results = self.stats_analyzer._analyze_dataset(
values, value_type, max_value)
self.assertEqual(results["number_frequencies"], {
1: 2, 2: 3, 3: 2, 4: 1, 5: 0})
self.assertEqual(
results["expected_number_freq"], len(values) / max_value)
self.assertEqual(results["number_chi2"], 2.5)
self.assertEqual(results["p_value_numbers"], 0.6)
self.assertEqual(results["min_number"], ([5], 0))
self.assertEqual(results["max_number"], ([2], 3))
self.assertEqual(results["number_std_dev"], 1.2)
self.assertEqual(results["number_variation_pct"], 30.0)
self.assertEqual(results["number_assessment"], "likely random")
@patch.object(StatsAnalysis, '_analyze_dataset')
@patch.object(StatsAnalysis, '_extract_numbers_and_stars')
def test_analyze_randomness(self, mock_extract, mock_analyze):
"""Test analyze_randomness with mocked methods to verify method interactions"""
mock_extract.return_value = ([1, 2, 3], [4, 5])
mock_analyze.side_effect = [
{"number_key": "number_value"},
{"star_key": "star_value"}
]
results = self.stats_analyzer.analyze_randomness(self.sample_draws)
mock_extract.assert_called_once_with(self.sample_draws)
self.assertEqual(mock_analyze.call_count, 2)
mock_analyze.assert_any_call([1, 2, 3], "number", 50)
mock_analyze.assert_any_call([4, 5], "star", 12)
self.assertEqual(results, {
"sample_size": len(self.sample_draws),
"number_key": "number_value",
"star_key": "star_value"
})
@patch('scipy.stats.chisquare')
def test_analyze_randomness_integration(self, mock_chisquare):
"""Integration test for analyze_randomness with real data"""
mock_chisquare.return_value = (2.0, 0.8)
results = self.stats_analyzer.analyze_randomness(self.sample_draws)
self.assertEqual(results["sample_size"], len(self.sample_draws))
self.assertIn("number_frequencies", results)
self.assertIn("star_frequencies", results)
self.assertEqual(
len(results["number_frequencies"]), self.stats_analyzer.max_number)
self.assertEqual(
len(results["star_frequencies"]), self.stats_analyzer.max_star)
self.assertEqual(results["number_assessment"], "likely random")
self.assertEqual(results["star_assessment"], "likely random")
def test_analyze_randomness_empty_draws(self):
"""Test behavior with empty draws list"""
with self.assertRaises(ValueError):
self.stats_analyzer.analyze_randomness([])
if __name__ == '__main__':
unittest.main()